文/Mukul Sanwal
By Mukul Sanwal
到2050年,正如人类文明史上曾经出现的那样,亚洲的GDP总量将超过全球的一半,而印度和中国将会是主要的贡献者,尽管两国对于新多边主义规则的看法有所不同。
In 2050 Asia will have amassed, as it has throughout civilization, more than half of the global GDP. The continent will have plenty of room for both India and China, despite any differences on rules of new multilateralism.

Sun over Southeast Asia on blue planet Earth isolated on black background. Highly detailed planet surface. Elements of this image furnished by NASA.


尽管未来印度拥有有望超过美国和日本成为第二大经济体的潜力,它也面临着挑战,即如何能保持经济长期持续发展,同时限制军费开销,加快基础设施建设以及人力资源和科技发展。印度应该把自己视为全球三大新兴经济体之一,而非谋求成为一个军事强国。
The challenge for India, with the potential to overtake both the United States and Japan to become the second largest economy, is to secure longer term economic interests while taking advantage of global trends to limit military expenditures while pushing infrastructure, human capital and technology development. India must now see itself as part of the emerging global economic triumvirate rather than a large military power.
21世纪,一个国家的影响力依靠的是经济实力,而非军事实力。这就要求一个国家拥有新的战略思维。在一个军事上“势力均衡”不再重要的全球化时代,包括印度在内的新兴大国应该着重考虑如何更好地参与国际规则的制定。
In the 21st century, countries will gain influence because of economic power rather than military might, creating demand for fresh strategic thinking on the roles of emerging powers, including India, and how they should be accommodated in rule-making in an era where military-based notions of ‘balance of power’ are no longer relevant to the globalized world.
当地时间2017 年11 月15 日,德国波恩,中国气候变化事务特别代表、中国代表团团长解振华,巴西环境部部长何塞·萨尼·菲略,南非环境事务部部长艾德纳·莫莱瓦, 印度环境森林与气候变化部部长哈什·瓦尔丹,共同出席发布会,就发展中国家的贡献、中国应对气候变化的努力和成效、2020 年前承诺和行动等问题,回答了中外记者提问。

美国的战略收缩为中国提供了填补这一“真空”的机会,而这也正是“一带一路”倡议产生背后的原因。“ 一带一路”倡议主张建设基础设施,发展包括印度在内的共同市场,以期获得足够的收益。中国正在加速进入老龄化社会,日本的情况更甚,两国均希望可以在这一倡议的框架下寻求合作。尽管印度的人口结构比较年轻,但需要引进投资和技术以实现跨越式发展以及重建与东南亚和非洲的传统贸易通道,这一点与中国的“一带一路” 倡议相辅相成。近期,中国释放出愿意与印度讨论关于后者对“一带一路”关切的信号,这对印度来说是个好机会。
China is filling part of the vacuum left by a retreating United States with the strategic thinking behind its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), stressing investment in infrastructure to build a common market, including with India, for adequate returns as it is rapidly aging. Japan, with an even more rapidly aging population, is also seeking cooperation within this initiative. India’s young population needs investment and technology to leapfrog development and recreate old networks with South-East Asia and Africa, which complement the BRI. New opportunities are also emerging with recent signals from Beijing of its willingness to discuss India’s concerns with the BRI.
中国正在致力于改革旧有的多边制度,建立国际新秩序。对此, 印度应该如何回应?值得关注的是印度和中国都质疑当今国际秩序的合法性,两国均非现行国际秩序的制定者,而是不公平国际规则的受害者。2009年,中印两国联合其他国家成立了“金砖国家”组织,并设立了金砖国家新发展银行和应急储备基金。2015年,中国主张成立了亚洲基础实施投资银行,印度是该行第二大股东。在多边金融领域,印度正与中国携手建立新规则。
How should India shape its response to China’s efforts to establish multilateral institutions to compete with existing ones and set new rules? The underlying issue is that India and China have been questioning the legitimacy of the current order, in whose creation they played no part and have nurtured a sense of injustice in the rules that were developed. India joined China in 2009 to organize the BRICS group of emerging economies and found a development bank and contingency reserve fund. In 2015 China launched the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank, in which India is the second largest shareholder. In multilateral finance, India is working with China to set the new rules.
在气候谈判方面,印度和中国也紧密合作,尤其是在西方国家试图不履行相关承诺时进行“反击”。在世贸组织,类似的情况也有发生,印中联手取得越来越多的胜利。西方在全球的影响力正在削弱,例如英国在联合国国际法庭丧失法官席位,而在联合国大会的强烈支持下,印度获得这一席位。
India and China are cooperating closely in climate negotiations as Western powers attempt to renege on their commitments and in issues involving the World Trade Organization, with increasing success. The declining influence of the West in existing global institutions is exemplified by Britain withdrawing its candidate for the International Court of Justice due to greater support in the United Nations General Assembly for India’s candidate.

有经济学家认为,莫迪政府经济结构改革和激进“废钞令”对经济运行产生冲击。2017 年尽管制造业景气相对良好,但居民消费增长不足,经济增速正趋于钝化。

近些年,美国不愿意继续为其盟友提供安全保护伞,而是建议这些国家从美国购买武器以更新军事装备。日本曾号召印度加入由美国领导的包括日本和澳大利亚在内的军事联盟,但却遭到印度的拒绝。这是由于印度认为通过军事遏制中国并非明智的选择。日本已经与中国就建立一个交流机制达成广泛一致意见,以防在中国东海争议水域和领空上的意外冲突。此外,日本非常渴望加入中国提出的“一带一路”倡议。与此同时,印度和日本启动了“东向行动”论坛,以加强经济合作.
That is why Japan’s earlier initiative to include India in the United States-led military alliance with Japan and Australia, as the United States shifts its emphasis from providing a security umbrella to urging its allies to increase their arms bought from the United States, was rightly rejected by India due to perceptions of a concerted attempt to militarily contain China. Japan and China have also reached a broad accord on setting up a communication mechanism to prevent accidental clashes in disputed waters in the East China Sea and airspace above, and Japan is enthusiastic about participating in the China-led BRI. India and Japan have also established an ‘Act East forum’ for economic cooperation.
随着美国退出多边贸易协议,印度如何面对一个新兴的一体化亚洲以及“亚洲世纪”将具有更大的战略意义。亚洲国家现在更多地开始在地区内部寻找发展理念和促进投资和经济合作,而不再一味地学习西方,由印度推动的“国际太阳能联盟”就是一个例子.
Of greater strategic significance to India will be its response to the emerging integrated Asia, and the shift towards the ‘Asian Century’, as the United States withdraws from multilateral trade agreements. Asian countries are increasingly looking inwards, and not to the West, for ideas, investment and economic cooperation. The Indiacatalyzed International Solar Alliance is one example.
随着全球经济中心转移到亚洲,预计最早至21世纪30年代,亚洲就会重新回到历史上欧洲人和美国人到达这片大陆之前的作为一个整体的平衡状态。作为新的安全和贸易体系,中印两国参与的上海合作组织与区域全面经济伙伴关系协定均没有美国的身影。这保证了这些体系的亚洲特性,从而摆脱了亚洲对于美国主导的金融体制和市场的依赖。尽管双方在历史问题和领土上还存在争议,中国和日本也已经就继续改善双边关系达成一致.
As global GDP shifts to Asia, by as early as the 2030s, Asia will revert to its historical equilibrium of an integrated continent that existed before the arrival of Europeans and later, the United States. New security and trade arrangements such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership exclude the United States yet involve both China and India, reinforcing the Asian identity and the collective shift away from reliance on U.S.-led financial institutions and markets. China and Japan have also agreed to improve bilateral relations, which have long been strained by historical issues and the territorial dispute. 
2017年12月16日,印度孟买,运输卡车停在繁忙的尼赫鲁港。

在一个多极的世界里,中国不能靠一己之力重塑世界秩序, 就像印度也不能期望亚洲其他国家在它和中国之间选边站队是一样的,毕竟这些国家把“一带一路”倡议视为发展经济的机会而非对国家安全的威胁。印度也需要仔细斟酌一下它与中国之间的争端,比如无需纠结马苏德·阿扎尔恐怖分子身份认定的问题,而应更多关注如何在多边框架下采取坚决行动打击国际恐怖主义。印度需要采取的战略不应该是反对中国提出的诸如“一带一路”等倡议,而应与中国携手共同制定目标和规则,正如两国在金融机构领域那样实现合作。纵观古今,印度的长项都是在塑造全球秩序中“出谋划策”。
In a multipolar world, China cannot shape the new order on its own just as India should not expect countries in Asia to choose between itself and China. Indians should recognize China’s BRI Initiative as a boon to economic growth and not a threat to their security. India will also need to carefully consider the issues it contests with China and India’s focus should be on strong resolutions against international terrorism on multilateral platforms. A sound strategy for India is not to reject initiatives promoted by China like the BRI and others that will inevitably follow, but to work with China to jointly set the agenda and rules, as the country is doing with financial institutions. One of India’s key strengths throughout civilization has been in the realm of ideas that have shaped the global order.

和平共处

PEACEFUL CO-EXISTENCE

习近平主席表示中国愿意与印度共同遵守1954年确定的“和平共处五项原则”。印度总理莫迪也表示要增加两国互信,共同维护边境和平安宁。
President Xi has signaled readiness to work with India under the guidance of “the five principles for peaceful coexistence”, or ‘Panchsheel’, from an agreement in 1954. It meets Prime Minister Modi’s concerns that the two sides increase mutual trust and jointly maintain peace and tranquility in border areas as a precondition for deeper cooperation.
2016 年6 月20 日,西藏迎来当年首批印度入境朝圣官方香客。中国边防官兵热情为香客办理入境手续,主动为有高原反应的香客提供医疗服务,确保香客安全、开心、顺利入境朝圣。

印度外交部把“ 和平共处五项原则”看作是处理国际关系的准则。“ 和平共处五项原则”包括“互相尊重主权和领土完整、互不侵犯、互不干涉内政、平等互利、和平共处”。1954年4月29日,“和平共处五项原则”首次被正式写入印度与中国签署的关于印度和中国西藏地区贸易往来协议。在1955年4月召开的由29个亚非国家和地区参加的万隆会议上, “ 和平共处五项原则”被并入国际和平和合作十项原则并写入会议宣言.
India’s Ministry of External Affairs describes ‘Panchsheel’ as a set of principles to conduct international relations. The five principles are: mutual respect for each other’s territorial integrity and sovereignty, mutual nonaggression, mutual noninterference in each other’s internal affairs, equal and mutual benefit working relationship and peaceful co-existence. These principles were first outlined in the Agreement on Trade and Intercourse Between the Tibet region of China and India signed on April 29, 1954 and later incorporated into the Ten Principles of International Peace and Cooperation enunciated in the Declaration issued by the April 1955 Bandung Conference of 29 Afro-Asian countries.
印度外交部称“和平共处五项原则”是“根植于两大文明古国的传统文化…… 为主导冷战时期的对抗思维提供了另一种选择”。然而,由于印中两国存在的边界问题,这一原则未能在得到很好的实施.
Panchsheel, according to the Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, is based on its “firm roots in the cultural traditions of its originators, two of the world’s most ancient civilizations… an alternative to the adversarial constructs that dominated the cold war era”. The power of the principles remains dormant if the security establishments manning the border do not trust each other.
如果印度出于对中国的不信任,导致双方无法达成正式的互不侵犯条约,是很遗憾的事情。印中边界问题是殖民主义导致的历史遗留问题。双方通过加强贸易和气候变化合作和巩固在亚洲新区域组织的合作,将为各自未来的发展铺平道路,共同打造互联互通、贸易和安全新秩序.
It would be a pity if mistrust of China, a scar left by colonialism, prevents resolution that could be cemented with a formal Non- Aggression Pact. Supplementing existing cooperation in trade and climate change and construction of new institutions in Asia will pave the way for the giants to become developmental opportunities of each other, jointly setting the new rules for connectivity, trade and security.

地缘经济合作

GEO-ECONOMIC COOPERATION

中印两国均认为通过加大基础设施联通投资,可以实现互惠互利, 并有助于进入对方迅速增长的市场。目前,两国的分歧主要集中在全球价值链一体化的本质和范围上,这体现在“区域全面经济伙伴关系”(RCEP)的谈判中。RCEP经济体的GDP总量占全球GDP的40%。由中国和印度主导的《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》并不涉及劳动者权益、环境保护或知识产权方面的协议,也不等同于美国和欧盟倡导的开放贸易的概念。
While China and India recognize the mutual benefits of investment in infrastructure connectivity and access to their growing markets, the two countries’ differences center on the nature and scope of the new rules for integration in global value chains. This dynamic is playing out in negotiations on the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which involves 40 percent of world GDP. The RCEP is dominated by China and India and does not include agreements on labor rights, environmental protections or intellectual property rights, rejecting notions of open trade being pushed by the United States and the European Union.

海上安全

MARITIME SECURITY

自古以来, 印度洋一直是连接了东西方的纽带,贸易和人员往来频繁。如今,它仍然是世界上重要的海上航道,承载了世界上一半的集装箱运输,三分之一散装货物运输以及近三分之二的全球海上石油贸易。这需要相关各国将关注的重点从安全问题转移到共同海洋资源治理上来.
Indian Ocean trade routes and exchange networks have connected the East and West throughout civilization and remain an important conduit for half the world’s container traffic, one third of bulk cargo transports and nearly two-thirds of global maritime oil trade, requiring shifting security priorities for governance of shared oceanic resources.
海洋问题现在已经成为亚洲国家安全政策的核心。印度应从本国国家利益出发,对日本提出的美日印澳“四边同盟”持慎重态度。印度曾拒绝了日本提出的以中国为对手的防卫协议,同样也应该拒绝美国提出的类似安排.
Maritime issues are now becoming central to security policies of Asian countries, and the Japan-led quadrilateral arrangement should be carefully considered to the extent India shapes the discourse to suit its national interests. India rejected a defense arrangement with Japan that would have seemed adversarial to China and should reject a similar push by the United States. 
2017年11月16日,中国海尔集团位于印度马哈拉施特拉邦浦那市的工业园举行扩建投产仪式。这是中国家电企业在印度投产的第一个工业园。图为工人在位于印度浦那市的中国海尔集团工业园厂房内工作。

美国一直把西太平洋地区视为自己的势力范围并将这一地区称为“印度-太平洋区域”,希望通过拉拢印度制衡中国。印度已经建立了自己的合作框架——印度洋海军论坛。这一合作框架由印度主导,包括印度洋地区35个沿海国家,覆盖20多亿人口。中国和日本都是印度洋海军论坛的观察员国,这为印度主导的亚洲海上合作奠定了良好的基础.
The United States has long seen its security interests extending into the Western Pacific and is re-defining them in terms of the Indo- Pacific to attract India to balance China. India has its own cooperation framework already in place and the ‘Indian Ocean Naval Symposium’ (IONS), formed by India, includes 35 participating states and territories in the Indian Ocean Region, representing some two billion people. China and Japan are both observer states in IONS, providing a sound basis for India-led Asian maritime cooperation.
习近平总书记在党的十九大报告中强调,只有合作才能实现“中国梦”。就像几个世纪前佛教在亚洲地区传播一样,印度应该推动建立在“和平共处五项原则”基础上的多边主义。同时,印度可以引领全球治理理念,推动公平的可持续发展成为国际新秩序的基础。与“华盛顿共识”相比。这些理念与习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想更加契合,将在亚洲引起积极反响,共同为“亚洲世纪”的到来夯实基础.
The biggest take-away from President Xi’s speech at the 19th Party Congress is recognition that cooperation alone will ensure the ‘Chinese dream’. It is India’s prerogative to push for new multilateralism to base on the ‘Panchsheel Principles”, just as Buddhism spread in the region centuries ago. India can also take conceptual leadership in global governance by stressing equitable sustainable development as the foundation of the new global order. These ideas are more in sync with ‘Xi Jinping Thought’ than the ‘Washington Consensus’ and will inspire a more positive response in Asia while cementing the Asian Century as having two nodes.
如今, 印度和中国已经成为国际规则的制定者,而非跟随者。亚洲不希望外来者干涉其新规则的制定,“亚洲世纪”将不再彰显竞争,而是应该共享繁荣和未来。正如习近平主席所说,“中印用一个声音说话,全世界都会倾听”.
Both China and India are now rule-makers, not just subjects, and the Asian Century does not have to be defined by rivalry, as Asia rejects the role of outsiders in shaping the new order, and sharing prosperity and common destiny. As Chinese Foreign minister Wang Yi, speaking in Delhi in December, said, “If China and India speak with one voice, the world will listen.”

本文作者Mukul Sanwal是前联合国外交官,现为清华大学客座教授。
The author is a Mumbai-based foreign policy analyst, and writes on trade, maritime security and energy.
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed within this article are the personal opinions of the author. The facts and opinions appearing in the article do not reflect the views of IIC (Indians in China) and IIC (Indians in China) does not assume any responsibility or liability for the same.
Source: 中印对话

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